cuneyt uysal | techonomics http://cuneytuysal.com the economics of change posterous.com Thu, 08 Apr 2010 05:41:46 -0700 Pssst. Are Location Based Services coming to the Enterprise? http://cuneytuysal.com/pssst-are-location-based-services-coming-to-t http://cuneytuysal.com/pssst-are-location-based-services-coming-to-t I came across a timely article from the consumer centric blog ReadWriteWeb. This blog post from RWW comes straight off the heels of our well attended Content Days in the Asia Pacific and Japan region in February, where we gave customers and partners a sneak peak at the upcoming launch of Open Text Everywhere. Open Text Everywhere aims to provide the empowerment, agility and control you’ve come to expect from an ECM vendor like Open Text, but right in your hand in a mobile device. At the end of my speech on the topic of mobility, we looked into the crystal ball and had a lively forum with the audience about how we as the Content Experts could envision the next generation of mobile applications for ECM. As I mentioned, RRW has made an interesting point in their article dubbed “FourSquare for the Enterprise: Give it 2 Years, Max.” FourSquare, a location based service or LBS, is known in the consumer world for allowing you to share your whereabouts and activities within a social network. It uses your current GPS location of your mobile phone to enrich your experience, allowing you to “check in” to restaurants and cafes as well as see exactly where you friends are at the moment. I happened to use FourSquare as an example of consumer technology that is headed our way within the enterprise during our Content Days in February. Truth be told, the Japanese have been playing the internet-enabled application game for years now, and the rest of the world is just catching up. One of the examples cited from the RWW article is that “A new generation of location-based applications will integrate with microblogging platforms.” This is a reasonable assumption for ECM as well, as location is an integral part of your approach to collaborating with a person. Are you in the office? Are you working from home? Should we meet face to face, or over a unified messaging platform? Automation will be key, as no one wants to have to explicitly state they are on the go, but simply having a mobile device that can detect that you are out of your GPS defined “office” or “home” region should allow your followers to understand you’re on the move. However at the Content Days, we all agreed that there are some interesting applications for location, mobility and even augmented reality for the future of mobile ECM. For example, we envisioned healthcare applications that could allow a doctor to see patient records and casefiles immediately from their mobile when approaching a patient’s bedside. Retail applications that allow you to use the phone’s camera to identify products on store shelves and be presented personalised coupons, rich media and social reviews. Energy and Utility applications that would overlay pipes, cables and pathways in a similar fashion to allow engineers to see a heads-up display of important data. Technicians in the field could be presented with MSDS, PDS and repair manuals on the fly when simply approaching a piece of plant, property or equipment. Even a museum or gallery goer could benefit by snapping photos of a famous painting and then being returned reams of historical information, artist background, related works and video content of that artwork or architecture. As you can see, the future for mobile applications is quite bright and Open Text Everywhere is only the first step in allowing the massive amounts of content organisations have today to be exploited and leveraged by their employees and consumers, at the moment they need it most. Disclosure: Cuneyt Uysal is a Product Manager and corporate blogger for Open Text corporation. You can find this post at http://possibilities.opentext.com

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Thu, 03 Sep 2009 07:24:38 -0700 HTML 5: Will your CMS ever be the same? http://cuneytuysal.com/html-5-will-your-cms-ever-be-the-same http://cuneytuysal.com/html-5-will-your-cms-ever-be-the-same Although HTML 5 is still a draft specification, it's impact is being felt across the technology landscape as this is written. In creating a new standard, the W3C was mindful of the latest developments in applied web application technologies, such as the growing popularity of media-rich Web sites over static brochure-ware, and innovations like AJAX.  I say applied because one of the key drivers behind the new specification was the understanding that the last decade or so of web development can be summed up as "forcing browsers to provide an experience they were never intended to," as I often mention to my colleagues. Anyone who has worked as a web developer can sympathize with the amount of hacks, workarounds and plugins needed to deliver a modern, interactive experience. And that's just within a single browser, let alone making your site cross platform. Hopefully, HTML 5 can begin to address this quagmire by making the underlying markup both relevant and applicable to what the web is actually used for these days. I won't go into detail with regard to the specification and it's potential,  but instead focus on how it will change the game specifically for the CMS software industry. So how will this impact authors, administrators, contributors on the web? Let's dive into the features and see how. Clearer separation of navigation, header and footer elements With the new elements types for navigation items and such, you'll not be surprised that browser safe, standardised and design-agnostic navigation can be provided out of the box in CMS. With standards around the underlying HTML of the navigation, CMS vendors can reliably provide more advanced site creation, navigation management wizards without having to worry about supporting the top 15 AJAX libraries and approaches out there. This portability can be achieved today with good effect using CSS and List elements, but these new elements should also help put to rest the debate about what type of navigation model to use and perhaps more importantly, provide the syntactic sugar to help search engines understand your site structure that much easier; for example, without the need to generate an XML sitemap. Local storage database Arguably the most obvious benefit to software vendors of all types is the local storage facility. No longer do we have to worry about flaky connections and long-workflow-abandonment. With local storage comes the promise of authoring web pages while on your flight to Texas, replying to blog posts in the train tunnel and a slew of other offline scenarios. Immediately, the mobile application development realm becomes far more interesting as offline caches can be stored in the device for interrogation when not connected, and in general, a faster experience when checking the local cache for your documents, as opposed to constantly "pulling" from the web server.  Long, multi-step online business processes won't be abandoned as often when users realise they can pick up right where they left off. Essentially, web apps will behave much more like desktop applications in their statefulness. I expect the memory allocation for each domain to be increased quite quickly, as pressure from vendors to store local caches of binary documents and other rich media will quickly surpass the 5MB suggested limit. Flash, Silverlight and Applets, oh my! The impact of web sockets, or the ability of web pages themselves to call and respond data sources, based on the socket pattern. If that sentence just flew right over your head, think about chat or instant messaging applications. They have traditionally been implemented in Flash or other RIAs du to the in built capabilities of the 3rd party plugin to supply the infrastructure. Although corporations like Facebook and Google have overcome this with their COMET based chat clients at significant development cost; this new infrastructure provided in the specification, could level the playing field for everyone else that is not as fortunate. "Essentially, what it does is lays the groundwork to have equivalent functionality that Flash or Silverlight provides," says RedMonk analyst Michael Cote. With the addition of new elements or tags for video and audio, the specification is pointed squarely at vendors like Adobe and Microsoft in an attempt to swing the balance back in favor of Google, who employ's HTML 5 lead editor Ian Hickson open standards. What does this mean for CMS software as we know it? For one, vendors will have an option outside of siding with Adobe or Microsoft, avoiding allegiance and licensing headaches when it comes to picking a video player of choice. Outside of the media player debate, CMS vendors can hope to bring a level of control and configuration not found in RIAs today. Most CMS struggle with anything besides supplying a basic XML file for Flash objects to ingest. That's about as far as they go today. With the new specification opening up the breathing room a bit, we could see a standardised approach to feeding parameters, content and even deploying objects within the RIA. CMS are great when it comes to deployment, rollback and versioning of code, and up until now, CMS functionality has been for the most part shut out of the equation because it had to hard stop at the executable level: the .SWF file. It was impenetrable. Now, CMS vendors can perhaps go deeper into the actual DNA of the RIA and allow authors to probe, create and adjust the contents and interactions just as richly as pure HTML or any other text markup. As with most trends, we'll have to watch for the final evolving uptake and following impact of these new standards. If the mind-bending Jedi tricks AJAX developers have crammed into ailing browsers is any indication of the future, we're sure to see many uses no one can anticipate right now. What are some ways in which you think the popular CMS platforms will be affected by the coming of HTML 5?

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Tue, 07 Jul 2009 03:31:30 -0700 Survey on Enterprise 2.0 Adoption by AIIM http://cuneytuysal.com/survey-on-enterprise-20-adoption-by-aiim http://cuneytuysal.com/survey-on-enterprise-20-adoption-by-aiim
Here are some of the relevant data points from AIIM's Enterprise 2.0 survey "Collaboration and Enterprise 2.0 - Work-meets-play or the future of business?" Credit to The content Economy.
  • Over half of organizations consider Enterprise 2.0 to be “important” or “very important” to their business goals and success.
  • Only 25% are actually doing anything about it, but this is up from 13% in 2008.
  • 68% think that professional networking on the web is vital to career progression.
  • 71% agree that it’s easier to locate “knowledge” on the Web than it is to find it on internal systems.
  • 40% feel it is important to have Enterprise 2.0 facilities within their ECM suite, with SharePoint TeamSites as the most likely collaboration platform.
  • As regards governance of usage and content, only 30% of companies have policies on blogs, forums and social networks, compared to 88% who have policies for email.
  • Planned spending on Enterprise 2.0 projects in the next 12 months is up in all product areas.
With these results, it's clear how a solution like these are gaining popularity.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Fri, 26 Jun 2009 00:00:38 -0700 IDM interviews Open Text about Social Media product http://cuneytuysal.com/idm-interviews-open-text-about-social-media-p http://cuneytuysal.com/idm-interviews-open-text-about-social-media-p I had a great discussion with Bill Dawes, Editor of Image and Data Manager online. We talked about how my organisation has already made the switch to Enterprise 2.0 tools completely out of viral growth. We never sent a "thou shalt use the new system" braodcast email or enforced it's use. It completely gained traction and adoption on it's own merits of high usbaility and effectiveness as a collaboration tool. Read more here.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Wed, 24 Jun 2009 00:56:46 -0700 Did Open Text Social Media just bloom before Google Wave? http://cuneytuysal.com/did-open-text-social-media-just-bloom-before http://cuneytuysal.com/did-open-text-social-media-just-bloom-before Something big is cooking and you'll be seeing it live from the Enterprise 2.0 Conference in Boston if you're lucky enough to be there. At the recent Content Days in Australia, I had the pleasure of showing off a brand new product that put a fresh face to collaboration. It was mentioned in the press more than a few times, especially KMWorld. The crowd was awed by the novel concept of collaborating via streams of information, grouped together by the teams communications such as email, blog posts, documents and wikis. Completely browser based, these conversations and status updates happen in real time as threads of discussions weave seamlessly in this new paradigm of collaboration. So what was this new magical product? Google Wave, you say? No, in fact, it was our about to launch OpenText social media initiative aimed at making enterprises bloom. Imitation is the highest form of flattery we suppose. See for yourself at http://wave.google.com/. Open Text Social Media will be generally available in July, 2009. To learn more, go to: http://cli.gs/OTSocialMedia

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Wed, 06 May 2009 15:39:43 -0700 OpenText to Acquire Vignette http://cuneytuysal.com/opentext-to-acquire-vignette http://cuneytuysal.com/opentext-to-acquire-vignette In a move that closely follows the recent acquisition of Interwoven, Vignette is rounding out the latest move in consolidating in the WCM space. The full scoop is here. This is another sign of how important WCM is to mega- enterprises who are recognizing web as their primary strategic channel for information. All hail the death of the document!

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Tue, 05 May 2009 03:14:16 -0700 OffiSync: Best of both GoogleDocs and Office Desktop http://cuneytuysal.com/offisync-best-of-both-googledocs-and-office-d http://cuneytuysal.com/offisync-best-of-both-googledocs-and-office-d
Finally, a startup that addresses the most glaringly obvious feedback from the user community who wish to leverage the inherent benefits of GoogleDocs yet still are hesitant to make the switch. In my consulting organisations who are trying to make the switch, they see the value in GoogleDocs - I mean, who doesn’t? A free ECM system by Google is nothing to shake a stick it. However, in practice, everyone who has actually tried to use this web office platform in earnest realises that for the enterprise space, there’s very little chance you could actually get a researcher, or business analyst at a firm to sincerely drop MS Office in favor of Writely. The reality is that users, as always, fear change are not willing to abandon their most sacred of trusty tools. And for good reason, the online variants are clearly leagues behind at present. Enter OffiSynch. Reiterating my advice to my clients, I’ve blogged before about the need to maintain the desktop productivity tools such as Word and Excel, and layer in the content management and collaboration goodness of GoogleDocs. This is what my clients have been doing manually with good success, and I can guarantee you that these synching tools will become mainstream tools for the web office innovators and leaders. Then I hear the discussion of business model, monetization. I regret to inform you that there is but a single, uninteresting business model for these companies. There’s little doubt in my mind that tools like OffiSynch are aiming purely to be purchased by their friendly ecosystem giant. It’s a path several prior ventures have taken to great success, and will continue to do so. From a Google product management standpoint, what I find most interesting is that these synching tools are noticeably missing from so many Google product lines. Google Reader lacks a native synching tool for the iPhone, lacks a synching tool for Outlook, etc. Contrast this to the understanding of prior ECM software vendors who immediately knew that to make an impact upon the existing customer base, they created desktop file explorer and Word integrations immediately because they analysed a typical user’s day to day work patterns and approached their product from a user-centric design philosophy. This is opposed to Google’s browser-centric philosophy, that continues to hold them back from virally growing their application suite. Good thing smaller players like OffiSync can fill the gap.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Sat, 21 Mar 2009 00:44:45 -0700 OpenText Responds to the CMS Vendor Meme http://cuneytuysal.com/opentext-responds-to-the-cms-vendor-meme http://cuneytuysal.com/opentext-responds-to-the-cms-vendor-meme Check out the response to the CMSWatch challenge here on the ECM Briefings blog. This was a great opportunity to showcase social media, and for a change, illustrate how the WCM vendors themselves participate in a discussion. I look forward to all the feedback from the user community.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Wed, 04 Mar 2009 07:34:52 -0800 Eco-Realistic: A Proposal for Non-profit Development http://cuneytuysal.com/eco-realistic-a-proposal-for-non-profit-devel http://cuneytuysal.com/eco-realistic-a-proposal-for-non-profit-devel In reading a well-articulated yet unsurprising article on the eco-friendly sub-trends emerging in 2009 by TrenWatchers, I was reminded of a non-profit idea I had decades ago. We all throw out things we shouldn't. The VCR remote that has a single broken button, the microwave that simply had its turntable belt snap yet still warms food fine or the laptop with the broken screen. Naturally, the "repair vs. buy a newer better version" decision is one that we have traditionally chosen to favor cost over environmental responsibility. What better excuse is engrained upon consumers than "if it's broken, don't fix it. Buy a new one?" As we see the perils of this shortminded logic come to the forefront of politics, I can't help but think about a primitive idea I had. What if we could begin to explore repairing items and craftsmanship again in the United States and other developed nations? Why is it that we can't repair the microwave in today's day and age? Becauase it costs you $100 dollars just to have a technician (if one even exists in your town) look at your microwave, when you could buy a brand new one from China, albeit of crap quality that will fail in a year, with some new trendy feature of allure. I thought about this on my commute as my bus rolled past a TV and Electronics repair store, in shambled and definintely without marketing investment since the 1960s. Transistors and tubes anyone? I won't go into the obvious follow on costs that we as a nation are oblivious too when chosing to buy the new microwave: the cost of waste, removal, impact on the environment, lost service revenue and economic stimulus for the repair person, etc. I can hear the greed-driven counter argument from capatalism: if consumers were taught to spend less, how would that adversely affect the economy? Simple: it would hurt China's trade surplus and corporate shareholders, it would only help local consumers.
"We are living in a false economy where the price of goods and services does not include the cost of waste and pollution," Lynn Landes, Founder and Director of Zero Waste America.
Fact is, we are finally coming to terms with the 1980s "greed is good" lifestyle and the hangover is sobering. With less and less value creation occuring within US borders and as a result of true US GDP (hint: try adjusting our GDP for goods produced locally with local resources, very enlightening) we are simply siphoning the consumer spend out of this nation. Now, this is a gross over simplification of a long term trend towards globalisation, and taking advantage of labor price differences. The US auto-industry is a great example of our failures to capatilise on local resources and ingenuity. But I digress. This train of thought made me recall an idea about leveraging labor price differences in developing countries for the sake of good. Imagine the possibility that these often discarded yet serviceable goods were made availible for repair. Based off of the model of self-sufficiency, capatlist farming schemes used in Africa to teach economics to fringe villages, this method could be applied to harnessing the latent value in all things we typically call "garbage." Instead of filling up landfills, goods in need of minor repair could be donated for free to these trade schools and the students would learn vocational skills to repair these household goods: either selling the refurbished unit or simply donating to needy homes. Although a microwave may not seem necessary to the average sub-Saharan tribal villager, these goods could be of value to neighboring cities and metropolitan areas in poor socioeconomic standing.The students in return get vocational and business skills necessary for partaking in the global economy. Naturally, there are many hurdles: logistically transporting tons of microwaves and washing machines from other nations, funding for the teachers, incentivization for donations, etc. By no means small hurdles. However, at some point, self-sufficient agriculture is not going to be a feasible trade for villagers looking to enter society as whole. This could simply be another venue for value creation, fortunately out of thin air. Please, send your thoughts and poke holes in the idea. Its far from pefect, so I'd love to hear your thoughts on making it so.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Tue, 03 Feb 2009 05:05:49 -0800 Shocking Usability - Part 1: Sydney Public Transport http://cuneytuysal.com/shocking-usability-part-1-sydney-public-trans http://cuneytuysal.com/shocking-usability-part-1-sydney-public-trans Oh baby, just where do I start with this one. In it's infinite wisdom, Sydney mass transit (known as the RTA) has decided to begin replacing IMHO the already effective train station displays. Here are the new ones:

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Let's breakdown the ways in which this active signage is confusing.
  1. Primarily, instead of the previous congruous interface on one screen - two screens are now provided, yet the interface is divided. This immediately separates the information uneccessarily. confusion around what the purpose of each display is immediate, especially for existing commuters who are accsutomed to the single screen, single interface of yore. The real estate of the prior single plasma panel is probably 75% of this combined two screen format. This could unfortunately be an example of the classic management mistake of a) having the requirement to expand the visible area (the new 25% provided by 2 smaller screens combined) yet b) realising that the software to run the screens cannot merge the information into 1 display or otherwise remove the vertical separator that divides the displays. This may be the inital culrpit behind why usability was lost, very early on in this civic projecte.
  2. Eye tracking will show that the most prominent and inital hot spot is actuall the "Following Trains" which look like embossed buttons on top of a contrasting blue display. This is unfortunate for someone who didn't bother to look back up and to the right for the "Next Train" which is camouflagued amongst a wash of white in the right scrolling monitor. Incidentally, I assume the business requirement here was to provide "more information about following trains;" something which was not availible in the prior interface. So, what should have become a benefit, implemented incorrectly, now is a distraction to the single most important use case: "When is the next darn train?" I can almost imagine a designer reflecting that the right screen should be used to replicate the original display (from an information architecture perspective, it does) and simply using the left panel to display otherwise new and auxilliary information. This approach fails to appreciate overall analysis of the combined result, while trying to correctly minimise changes to existing commuters.
  3. In fact, the effect power of borders and box shapes even creates an area of more attention towards the blue box for "8 cars" than the time of the next train. Now let me  ask you as a commuter, how many times have you really cared about the exact number of cars on a given train, or how often this actually factored into a decision about your travel? I can honestly answer never for me - perhaps more important for the staff or authorities on patrol.
We'll look in our next blog post on how I would have redesigned this interface for greater usability.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Wed, 17 Dec 2008 07:26:09 -0800 Thoughts on 'The Future of the Internet III' http://cuneytuysal.com/thoughts-on-the-future-of-the-internet-iii http://cuneytuysal.com/thoughts-on-the-future-of-the-internet-iii It's that time of year again when PEW / Internet reports on the not-so-distant future via its predictions for our internet-enabled lives. Here's my take.
Here are the key findings on the survey of experts by the Pew Internet & American Life Project that asked respondents to assess predictions about technology and its roles in the year 2020:
The mobile device will be the primary connection tool to the internet for most people in the world in 2020. Nothing surprising here, compare the number of cell phones to personal computers and we're talking orders of magnitude difference. 2020? That's quite a safe margin. I would place this closer to the 2015 mark, depending on how you define "primary." Are we talking total time spent online, frequency of usage, availibility or an aggregate metric? Either way, the masses of non-PC owning, lower income populations will easily sway this in the favor of the mobile. The transparency of people and organizations will increase, but that will not necessarily yield more personal integrity, social tolerance, or forgiveness. I refute that personal integrity does not grow with transparency, in as much that personal integrity to a degree requires transparency. Just look at Obama's tactic of clearly stating his stance on political issues in an easy to access format on the web for everyone to read. Consider the opposite case: could you entrust someone who rarely divulged any personal information?As for social tolerance or forgiveness, I wouldn't suspect these to ever necessarily be tacit outcomes of transparency Voice recognition and touch user-interfaces with the internet will be more prevalent and accepted by 2020. Meh, no offense, but this proposition smells as if the researchers were searching for a theory due to lack of standouts. Consider how it is written... these interfaces coupled with internet usage. Of course, these interfaces have been around for sometime. Heck, my current employer made touchscreen kiosk software in the early 1990s that were in fact remotely updated over the internet. Surely, the prevalence of the intersection of "voice and touch interfaces" with "internet" will grow, as this is a fairly new space. The researchers aren't really going out on a limb to state that these will be dominant forces in UX or become mainstream. Or, we could just sum this up as 2 good features from the iPhone and call it a day. Those working to enforce intellectual property law and copyright protection will remain in a continuing arms race, with the crackers who will find ways to copy and share content without payment. Considering there's been very little grounbreaking enhancements in pircay in the last decade, this is also another non-surprise. Perhaps content producers will sooner realise that piracy, in its current definition, is flawed. Much like the quote that an idea can never be destroyed, content producers should focus on creating revenue streams from their content that don't rely on distribution or consumption (read: middlemen). Sigh. The divisions between personal time and work time and between physical and virtual reality will be further erased for everyone who is connected, and the results will be mixed in their impact on basic social relations. Completely agreed. As I just tweeted, I am a nanabot. Next-generation engineering of the network to improve the current internet architecture is more likely than an effort to rebuild the architecture from scratch. If you're a fan of software and systems design, you'll know this as an old truth. How often do projects or vendors succeed in ground-up rewrites or masse switches? Without totalitarian control, this is typically a death march. Just look at attempts to ratify HTML 5.0, the lingua franca of the web, let alone rewriting HTTP. In summary, nothing groundreaking. Move along.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Fri, 12 Dec 2008 03:53:06 -0800 Corporatocracy wins again, but there is hope http://cuneytuysal.com/corporatocracy-wins-again-but-there-is-hope http://cuneytuysal.com/corporatocracy-wins-again-but-there-is-hope If you've been following my tweets, one of the central concerns I had in November was the lack of concern around deflation, amidst worries of inflation. The financial media has turned around as has the http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20081121/bs_nm/us_usa_fed_bullard" target="_blank">mainstream. What's still troubling is the complete radio silence around how the $7.8 Trillion in total bail-outs are being appropriated at these institutions. An amazing statistic to back-up just how self-serving these taxpayer funded relief programs are is taken from a recent article about "good" news in the sector:
In 2007, bankers made a total of $38 billion in bonuses alone -- even though their shareholders lost $74 billion in stock market value. That's because their reported profits were fake. In the last few years the top nine banks have reported $305 billion in profits -- but since then they've taken $323 billion in write-offs.
Sad. It's obvious that the federal government didn't heed the warnings, and to top it off, the relief programs have yet to do address the investor. Sad, how unequipped the average hardworking American is to truly understand or have decisive factor in how these measures are created, used or approved. I'm sure if the average Joe knew that AIG executives were playing golf on taxpayer money there would be less support for such measures. Sad, to ponder just how much the average citizen will endure before actually changing, speaking out against the system. What will it take for reform? What message are citizens sending politicians, our leaders, if they accept intentionally complex economic justifications to rationalise the fleecing of citizens at benefit of greed? Sad, that the well-educated and infinietly more crafty sharks on the Street will undoubtedly outwit public servants responsible for protecting the public's investments. History repeats itself, once again. I simply hope that these events will server as lessons to citizens that personal dreams of realising Horatio Alger story of rags to riches is no reason to allow financial perpetraitors to exist. Plenty of developed nations have proven they generate wealth for the spectrum of their society's classes, without engendering a culture of hell-bent greed. Hopefully, the new guard can begin to change this culture on the hill. For more reading on this topic, I recommend an interesting read: John Perkins book, Confessions of an Economic Hitman. Surrounded by controversy, you're left to interpret this how you see fit. Conspiracy theories abound, but it brings to bear the motivations of a modern empire. As well, it's perhaps an enlightening reading for a citizen who has not personally come face to face directly with flesh and blood foreigners, outside the protective cocoon of American mass media, and misinformation. I , as well as Perkins, was amazed by how well educated and politically knowledgeable indigenous tribes are about current affairs relative to "civilization." I was shocked when I visited a tribe in the Fijian highlands in the Christmas of 2001 and was engaged in deep conversations surrounding the attacks that September. In closing, I draw from an telling quote from Perkins in his prologue, in which he is confident that:
Once enough of us become aware of how we are being exploited ... we will no longer tolerate it.
I too belive that awareness is the key. I have no doubt the majority of man is goodwilled, we simply need to take ownership of our actions and assume personal responsibility for being an informed and well educated society. From a technological perspective, we are seeing how the erosion of information advantages and democratization of media has delivered serious blows to the current corporate regime. As a tecnologist, I have no doubt that the various spiritual and societal references to the "collective conscience" is indeed currently being supported by the knowledge sharing and awareness brought about by the internet. My, just look at our President Elect.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Mon, 24 Nov 2008 05:41:31 -0800 Internet erodes middlemen: Why is Scoble Surprised? http://cuneytuysal.com/internet-erodes-middlemen-why-is-scoble-surpr http://cuneytuysal.com/internet-erodes-middlemen-why-is-scoble-surpr Das Scoble recently discussed what he thought was a trend in which Chinese manufacturers are creating new avenues of direct sales via internet commerce. I personally have been using DealExtreme to snatch up my favorite Canal Street goodies since 2005. A pioneer in this revolution, we'll see more and more manufacturers and wholesalers cut out middlemen and thereby make the economy overall more efficient for consumers and value-generators. In general, I am stoked. Other personal examples include my recent purchase of 40 pairs of no -brand knock off sunglasses for... $40 USD. Not bad when the exact some pair sells for $10 at a sunglass hocker on the street. Let's face it, the whole concept of having a "wholesale license" or equivalent protection only creates unnecessary intermediaries. Now, we all know that the art of being a good businessman is being a good middleman, but this model is flawed for easily distributable consumer goods. There's no reason to believe that the WAL-MART battle will not be fought 100% online once the vision of a completely internet accessible populous is established by low cost or free access methods. Does this spell the end for revilers? Perhaps, I can't rule this out. Some of the musings I've had with partners range from envisioning "flagship" stores for brands where would be consumers can kick the tires, try on the expensive clothing item, before then simply going home to purchase the product from the same manufacturer - or directly at a local kiosk, much like at an airport terminal. Maintain stock and sales people at the store? Are you kidding me? Waste of expenses, thank you. Besides, who wants to talk to any sales people these days. I just want to make sure the shoe fits, know what I mean? Finally, and this is at the verge of science fiction, I envision the democratic and open knowledge sharing forces of the internet to drive the market economics much closer to theoretical perfect knowledge than years prior. I can't rule out the possibility that this would spell the demise of modern advertising as we know it, if not the complete demise of advertising. That's right, I said it. The demise and deprecation of advertising. We're already seeing the effect of digital media consumption upon the informed masses: we no longer respond to one-size-fits all broadcast media and dumb billboard adverts. No, for years now, the digital strategists recognize the need to connect by providing a service: the branded application, the mobile utility - something that adds utilitarian value in order to foster brand value. And then, maybe if you're lucky, they'll buy your soft drink. So, yes, I can't rule out the natural evolution of the intelligent consumer. Given that any sales process can be defined using game theory and probabilistics, if we make the assumption that the consumer acts at any given point in time based on the information and intelligence at hand, and that they will make the best decision given that information, who is to say that consumers wont simply purchase the best product based on ultimate, social and collective intelligence based on concrete reviews and customer experience as opposed to branding, positioning and the must enlightened of campaigning? Imagine if at any time, consumers could access real-time, social recommendations down to the exact need for product or service, and at such a time, information was provided with such statistical confidence and volume that the "Zyco Com" Car is the best based on their provided, sliced and diced criteria, how could a consumer choose anything but what the other 14,345 Five-star giving consumers exactly like Punjib bought? And so, perhaps, we are seeing the very beginning of the end of formal advertisement as we know it, with the moves in digital marketing today.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Fri, 14 Nov 2008 03:05:21 -0800 The worst of the economic crisis has not yet passed http://cuneytuysal.com/the-worst-of-the-economic-crisis-has-not-yet http://cuneytuysal.com/the-worst-of-the-economic-crisis-has-not-yet After what many would assume would be the lowest point we'd expect to hit in the Dow, hitting the 7,000 mark for the first time in ages, I'd beg to differ. Long time bell-weather of economic resilience, consumer and retail spending in the holiday season is in jeopardy. With BestBuy in anguish, Circuit City filing for bankruptcy and holiday sales expected to slow for the first time in 25 years my prediction is that we have not yet hit a bottom in economic angst. All the bears need is to see the actual results of retail spending to drive the Dow down below to 1980 levels, and it's shaping up to go that direction given the fact that even American Express is seeking protection by converting to a bank to take advantage of the TARP scheme. Maybe every company with debt should consider becoming a bank... Still, the market overall is going to psychologically be swayed by consumer fears about the upcoming retail season. I've yet to see any indication of how the federal financial bailout plans are doing anything to protect the consumer who is ultimately paying the bill twice, once in lost homes and second in tax hikes to offest the debt. In what could be one of the greatest acts of corruption-fueled-socialism in our modern era, the bailout plans have been kept Guantanamo secret for one reason: the administration doesn't want anyone to know how the money is being used, because in reality, its a raw deal for average citizens. The financial institutions are paying themselves, and the government is ignoring the consumer.I'm still shocked how in a government so god-fearing and anti-socialist that more citizens haven't raised their hands to comment on the nature of the bailout as being completely socialist in it's nature. Even more troubling, is that it is practically an dictatorially decided, purely elitist-benefiting move that is socially funded. Read: the rich stealing from the poor. This is taking the government back some 600 years to the level of paying tribute to the royal kingdom. It escapes me how the government can endorse unsafe financial practices in the first place, and then further endorse those actions by providing more cash to the institutions responsible for the meltdown. In effect, the government is rewarding the actions of shady executives meeting at luxury retreats and ignoring those with true problems: the average consumer facing the reality of the downturn. Where are the foreclosure freezes? The interest rate freezes? By siding with the banks, it's as if the government is blaming the uneducated masses for being conned into junk debt. It's everyone's responsibility to be an educated consumer, but in extreme circumstances as we are in now, if the government doesn't side with the people, who will? And, what will happen in the next bubble in seven years? What scheme will Wall Street use to shill the moms and pops around the country next time? It seems like people never learn to distrust the Street.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Fri, 28 Sep 2007 01:05:31 -0700 BoA impresses online http://cuneytuysal.com/boa-impresses-online http://cuneytuysal.com/boa-impresses-online Wow. I actually closed a deprecated savings account via a simple, secure mail message I sent a week ago. I notified them in the email I didn't need any confirmation at all. 2 days later, the account was closed. God bless the fact that customer support is finally embracing the internet. Just think how long that would have taken 3 years ago... I would have had to come back to the branch in person; not an easy task when you live 3000 miles away. Amen. Two thumbs up.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Fri, 30 Mar 2007 01:01:17 -0700 AppleTV gets something right: YouTube http://cuneytuysal.com/appletv-gets-something-right-youtube http://cuneytuysal.com/appletv-gets-something-right-youtube Besides almost hitting $120 in intraday trading thanks to the news, AppleTV now has some features that would bring it (barely) on par with a modded old-school Xbox: it can play YouTube videos!
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Sorry Apple, I'm all tough love. It just means I care.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Fri, 09 Mar 2007 00:54:23 -0800 Kudos and Boodos for Apple's Outlook http://cuneytuysal.com/kudos-and-boodos-for-apples-outlook http://cuneytuysal.com/kudos-and-boodos-for-apples-outlook Amen to this article on the market
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segmentation of smartphone users into discreet pools of consumer and business demographics. I posted way back that BlackBerry wouldn't make a consumer friendly phone, and although they did in the Pearl, which has a camera and MP3 player, there's no way it could touch the iPhone on the digital media capabilities. Don't get me wrong, I love my Pearl, but I do so because it's my "killer work email smartphone with a camera and MP3 player on-the-side" workhorse. And, as suspected, iBankers haven't been given the liberty to choose the Pearl's slim form factor option as a corporate-sponsored phone because it lacks the QWERTY keyboard. If you haven't noticed, QWERTY spells PRODUCTIVITY ON MY DIME. Sorry Goldman interns. Now, key to Apple's success in this venture is to make a killer email integration. I can't emphasize how important this step is. Without it, the iPhone is not a smart phone. I would imagine that Apple is going to be smart enough to recognize the demographic split as mentioned, and create seamless integrations with GMail and Yahoo, that leverage a UI that is iPhone specific (read: NOT GMail Mobile). At the same time, it will draw competition from RIM to enhance their media solutions, but this is inevitably in the pipe. Obviously a fool's bet to say that RIM will outplay iTunes, et al. but they need to improve just to stay competitive. However, that doesn't mean that Apple couldn't move into the business user space, but they now would have to replicate BlackBerry server functionality, and that's not in Apple's ballpark to focus on B2B services. Personally, I wish that RIM would get bankrupted by patent lawsuits and then once that's cleared, Apple could make a hostile takeover while RIM is cashless... cruel, but man, how perfect a device would be born out of that fire. No for the Boodos. WHAT IS UP WITH APPLETV? This product has got to be the weakest modern Apple product launch to date. Just when Apple seemed to be poised to  be the only  big player capable of preventing Microsoft from taking over our living rooms, internet television and subsequently... the world; Apple dropped the ball! Apple failed on this version of AppleTV because:
  1. It doesn't stream videos from your desktop...
  2. It doesn't stream videos from your desktop?
  3. It doesn't stream videos from your desktop!?!?!
  4. Doesn't let you purchase from iTunes
  5. ....
Long term, Apple will correct these, but it's funny how analysts have just figured out how pervasive the internet TV
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revolution could be on marketing, advertising and literally up-end mass media as we know it... because while Apple is just scratching this surface with AppleTV vision, guess what, Microsoft already has the hardware, distribution mechanism and loyal base of installed users. It's called the Xbox 360, and it does everything that AppleTV doesn't do yet .... today. I am utterly amazed by how ingenious the Xbox team are in creating this internet TV settop box, hidden and originally sold in a video game console's skin, that  has silently and subtlety made bill Gates the next Ted Turner or Rupert Murdoch. I should also point out the extreme luck that enabled this clean sweep. Sony failed to maintain their title of console king by absolutely blowing the PS3 campaign, from just about every perspective from design to operations. This opened the door for Microsoft to saturate the market, err, steal  the market from Sony. And now, Apple just helped by coming up short on the typically stellar launch of the AppleTV. The paradigm shift that traditional print media faced when the internet grew as a medium is a drop in the bucket, ad -dollar-wise, compared to the disruption the internet will bring by eclipsing TV. That's like hockey taking over major league baseball as the top sport in America. Again like the RIM quandries for the iPhone, you can parallel the differentiators for Microsoft XBox 360 and AppleTV. Apple has the content and licensing  model in iTunes, where Zune and whatever unheard of DRM platform Micrsoft has is infantile (can you smell a partnership?). On the other hand of the corollary, Xbox has the added benefit of appealing as a console to young gamers as well as a perceived cost / value benefit in that it serves as the dual use internet enable home theatre device. AppleTV, not so much on serving multiple age groups. Expect them to use the  iPod / iTunes community as leverage into the youth demographic. I end with a quote that I actually agree from Bill Gates (or I should say whatever visionary in his digital staff prepped him for) : "I'm stunned how people aren't seeing that with TV, in five years from now, people will laugh at what we've had."
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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Wed, 17 Jan 2007 00:51:14 -0800 iPhone: Redemption with a Splash of Doubt http://cuneytuysal.com/iphone-redemption-with-a-splash-of-doubt http://cuneytuysal.com/iphone-redemption-with-a-splash-of-doubt Yes. Yes. YES, the iPhone is finally out. Nearly the entire IT industry came to a grinding halt as Steve Jobs announced the iPhone officially. Alongside some of the moust highly receptive praise from the analysts, comes the near certain barrage of doubts. We all know that fame begets criticism, and I'd like to share with you a piece from one of my favorite industry rags and stomping grounds of crazy-man Jim Cramer, The Street
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. As much as I'd like to send out a big NYC boo-yah to Kaas, I've found several shortcomings in his argument. The vast majority revolves around a very myopic view of the product lifecycle, and it's phases. Just like enterprise software roll-outs, you cannot expect everything to make the first iteration, not just due to bandwidth limitations, but it's not practical from a feedback perspective, as you need to hedge your bets and adjust your strategy based on the success of each phase. High selling price spells limited marketing potential. An 8GB iPod nano and a high-end handset with similar features to the iPhone would retail for under $300, so the planned pricing implies a 100% premium for device integration and "the coolness of all things Apple." First, I'm not sure where he's getting his numbers. I think "similar features" is a stretch, the size of the Grand Canyon. Industry experts (you know, consumers?) agree that the benefits of usability are priceless. I don't know of a single phone that is more usable than the iPhone. Granted, the iPhone is not cheap - for now.  Like any product who's price is governed by evolving hardware, you're going to see prices fall - quickly. It's no guess that the highly proprietary (read: low production volume, demand and hence high cost) LCD touch screen is taking the lion share of the handsets cost. Expect this price to halve by next year. This is an old concept, and I won't waste time repeating it. Just look at the evolution of iPod pricing over the years. 2. Why not target the corporate market? One word: Blackberry. The last thing Apple needs to do as an emerging entrant in a completely new market, is make it obvious to the current market leader, that its going for it's throat. I blogged on the business vs. consumer segmentation prospects for the iPhone earlier, and still feel that Apple is not yet poised, or flat out even interested, in the business user sector. Microsoft and the stodgy B2B crowd usually beat Apple to the punch, simply becuase I don't think Steve Jobs and the rest of the Apple bunch love to serve that market, they love consumers, and each market has a separate set of expectations. Now, that's not to say that Apple won't ever go there. However, I don't see Apple recreating BlackBerry type functionality. I would love to see them partner with Google Office. Just a wish, here. More post upcoming on this topic.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Thu, 07 Sep 2006 00:49:45 -0700 Redemption: Where art thou iPhone (Part III) http://cuneytuysal.com/redemption-where-art-thou-iphone-part-iii http://cuneytuysal.com/redemption-where-art-thou-iphone-part-iii Interesting how just weeks ago, before the fed rate pause, analysts were hammering Apple's price target down to 60. Some even had worse sentiment not mentioning, becuase it simply shows how narrowminded analysts can be. In fact, I love playing against the analysts advice. I love gaming analysts. Opportunity is found in what the market is not paying attention to, or has got all wrong. I ask myself if any of the analysts assigned to Apple even own an iPod or really are inspired by the business model, the process, the creativity. One of my biggest rules to investing is to only invest in tangible companies: one's you have first experience with, be it on a consumer or professional level. I guess I can't blame the analysts, as they have to play risk-averse ball in order to appease the masses. No one wants to lose their retirement on tech (again) right? I don't have to play no contact, however, and if the anlaysts had picked up on the subtle clue in the quarterly report given by the Apple CFO that the iPhone was indeed a reality, you could have caught Apple at low 60's. Now, Apple does happen to be up 8% in two days
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since the announcement of the iPhone, and the analysts are of course, upgrading after the stock has already gone up. Thank the analysts when the stock pulls back as most would after such a rally (hint: if I bought Apple at 50, its recent 52 week low, I would consider selling at 72, lest I be considered greedy. You can't beat 50% in 3 months on a blue-chip). I set my target price for Apple at 75. I'm going to play hardball and ride it out to 85 just to save commissions on the sale. I strongly believe in setting targets for stock plays, as opposed to Index funds. Set a goal, score and go home. Don't expect lightning to keep striking in the same place indefinitely. Same goes for any gamble. That's why I've never lost money gambling. I wish I could say the same for the stock market. :) And yes, I'm even more excited about the iPhone! My mobile contracts about to expire and my beloved SE t610 is on it's last legs after 3 years of dutiful service.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt Fri, 01 Sep 2006 00:48:15 -0700 KMWorld Magazine Names Hummingbird and RedDot "Trend-Setting Products of 2006" http://cuneytuysal.com/kmworld-magazine-names-hummingbird-and-reddot http://cuneytuysal.com/kmworld-magazine-names-hummingbird-and-reddot Ok, more flag waiving
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, I know. I'll stop eventually, but for now, I have to admit that we're all really proud about the accolades RedDot has been receiving. RedDot's first appearance on the KMWorld list was back in 2000 when the industry-rocking WYSIWYG editing environment was dropped on the scene.
Red dots to edit the web page? You mean I click the red ...  aaahh, ok, got it. Sold.
Now that RedDot has been acquired thrice in the last 9 months, our return to the list was not motivated purely by technological gains, but more as a result of the market validating our strategic positioning of ECM for the mid-market. This sector is slated to have a substantial compound annual growth rate of 19% in the next 5 years as organizations seek to reap in the benefits of tried and true, low cost solutions being that they are the peak, or "middle of the bell curve" in the product adoption lifecycle. This, of course, is the period in the lifecycle with the most volume under the curve, and hence, the most sales. This has gained traction with both Forresters and Gartner, as they dubbed RedDot "the leader in mid-market ECM."  Not to liken Google to the state of collective conscience around the globe, but see for yourself what the search keywords "mid market ECM
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" yield. Throughout all of the bids for RedDot, we have shone as the jewel of the parent organization: not unlike a humble yet exuberant Gretzky
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in his rookie year. Ever since the Hummingbird aquisition, RedDot has been a key differentiator in Hummingbird's sales cycle, and as mentioned in my previous post, was a strong motivator for Hummingbird's own aquisition by OpenText. Given the recent M&A spree in ECM (high-noted by IBM's bid for FileNet), I would not be surprised if an even larger player such as HP or EMC acquired OpenText to round out their battle chest.

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]]> http://files.posterous.com/user_profile_pics/1796403/39-3.jpg http://posterous.com/users/hdKcSnUb251wK cuneyt cuneyt cuneyt